The Inaugural Hurwitz & Associates Predictive Analytics Victory Index is complete!

For more years than I like to admit, I have been focused on the importance of managing data so that it helps companies anticipate changes and therefore be prepared to take proactive action. Therefore, as I watched the market for predictive analytics really emerge I thought it was important to provide customers with a holistic perspective on the value of commercial offerings. I was determined that when I provided this analysis it would be based on real world factors. Therefore, I am delighted to announce the release of the Hurwitz & Associates Victory Index for Predictive Analytics! I’ve been working on this report for a quite some time and I believe that it will be very valuable tool for companies looking to understand predictive analytics and the vendors that play in this market.

Predictive analytics has become a key component of a highly competitive company’s analytics arsenal. Hurwitz & Associates defines predictive analytics as:

A statistical or data mining solution consisting of algorithms and techniques that can be used on both structured and unstructured data (together or individually) to determine future outcomes. It can be deployed for prediction, optimization, forecasting, simulation, and many other uses.

So what is this report all about? The Hurwitz & Associates Victory Index is a market research assessment tool, developed by Hurwitz & Associates that analyzes vendors across four dimensions: Vision, Viability, Validity and Value. Hurwitz & Associates takes a holistic view of the value and benefit of important technologies. We assess not just the technical capability of the technology but its ability to provide tangible value to the business. For the Victory Index we examined more than fifty attributes including: customer satisfaction, value/price, time to value, technical value, breadth and depth of functionality, customer adoption, financial viability, company vitality, strength of intellectual capital, business value, ROI, and clarity and practicality of strategy and vision. We also examine important trends in the predictive analytics market as part of the report and provide detailed overviews of vendor offerings in the space.

Some of the key vendor highlights include:
• Hurwitz & Associates named six vendors as Victors across two categories including SAS, IBM (SPSS), Pegasystems, Pitney Bowes, StatSoft and Angoss.
• Other vendors recognized in the Victory Index include KXEN, Megaputer Intelligence, Rapid-I, Revolution Analytics, SAP, and TIBCO.

Some of the key market findings include:
• Vendors have continued to place an emphasis on improving the technology’s ease of use, making strides towards automating model building capabilities and presenting findings in business context.
• Predictive analytics is no longer relegated to statisticians and mathematicians. The user profile for predictive analytics has shifted dramatically as the ability to leverage data for competitive advantage has placed business analysts in the driver’s seat.
• As companies gather greater volumes of disparate kinds of data, both structured and unstructured, they require solutions that can deliver high performance and scalability.
• The ability to operationalize predictive analytics is growing in importance as companies have come to understand the advantage to incorporating predictive models in their business processes. For example, statisticians at an insurance company might build a model that predicts the likelihood of a claim being fraudulent.

I invite you to find out more about the report by visiting our website: www.hurwitz.com

EMC and Big Data- Observations from EMC World 2011

I attended EMC’s User Conference last week in Las Vegas. The theme of the event was Big Data meets the Cloud. So, what’s going on with Big Data and EMC? Does this new strategy make sense?

EMC acquired Greenplum in 2010. At the time EMC described Greenplum as a “shared nothing, massively parallel processing (MPP) data warehousing system.” In other words, it could handle pedabytes of data. While the term data warehouse denotes a fairly static data store, at the user conference, EMC executives characterized big data as a high volume of disparate data, which is structured and unstructured, it is growing fast, and it may be processed in real time. Big data is becoming increasingly important to the enterprise not just because of the need to store this data but also because of the need to analyze it. Greenplum has some of its own analytical capabilities but recently the company formed a partnership with SAS to provide more oomph to its analytical arsenal. At the conference, EMC also announced that it has now included Hadoop as part of its Greenplum infrastructure to handle unstructured information.

Given EMC’s strength in data storage and content management, it is logical for EMC to move into the big data arena. However, I am left with some unanswered questions. These include questions related to how EMC will make storage, content management, data management, and data analysis all fit together.

• Data Management. How will data management issues be handled (i.e. quality, loading, etc.)? EMC has a partnership with Informatica and SAS has data management capabilities, but how will all of these components work together?
• Analytics. What analytics solutions will emerge from the partnership with SAS? This is important since EMC is not necessarily known for analytics. SAS is a leader in analytics and can make a great partner for EMC. But, its partnership with EMC is not exclusive. Additionally, EMC made a point of the fact that 90% most enterprises’ data is unstructured. EMC has incorporated Hadoop into Greenplum, ostensibly to deal with unstructured data. EMC executives mentioned that the open source community has even begun developing analytics around Hadoop. EMC Documentum also has some text analytics capabilities as part of Center Stage. SAS also has text analytics capabilities. How will all of these different components converge into a plan?
• Storage and content management. How do the storage and content management parts of the business fit into the big data roadmap? It was not clear from the discussions at the meeting how EMC plans to integrate its storage platforms into an overall big data analysis strategy. In the short term we may not see a cohesive strategy emerge.

EMC is taking on the right issues by focusing on customers’ needs to manage big data. However, it is a complicated area and I don’t expect EMC to have all of the answers today. The market is still nascent. Rather, it seems to me that EMC is putting its stake in the ground around big data. This will be an important stake for the future.

Four Findings from the Hurwitz & Associates Advanced Analytics Survey

Hurwitz & Associates conducted an online survey on advanced analytics in January 2011. Over 160 companies across a range of industries and company size participated in the survey. The goal of the survey was to understand how companies are using advanced analytics today and what their plans are for the future. Specific topics included:

– Motivation for advanced analytics
– Use cases for advanced analytics
– Kinds of users of advanced analytics
– Challenges with advanced analytics
– Benefits of the technology
– Experiences with BI and advanced analytics
– Plans for using advanced analytics

What is advanced analytics ?
Advanced analytics provides algorithms for complex analysis of either structured or unstructured data. It includes sophisticated statistical models, machine learning, neural networks, text analytics, and other advanced data mining techniques. Among its many use cases, it can be deployed to find patterns in data, prediction, optimization, forecasting, and for complex event processing. Examples include predicting churn, identifying fraud, market basket analysis, and analyzing social media for brand management. Advanced analytics does not include database query and reporting and OLAP cubes.

Many early adopters of this technology have used predictive analytics as part of their marketing efforts. However, the diversity of use cases for predictive analytics is growing. In addition to marketing related analytics for use in areas such as market basket analysis, promotional mix, consumer behavior analysis, brand loyalty, churn analysis, companies are using the technology in new and innovative ways. For example, there are newer industry use cases emerging including reliability assessment (i.e. predicting failure in machines), situational awareness, behavior (defense), investment analysis, fraud identification (insurance, finance), predicting disabilities from claims (insurance), and finding patterns in health related data (medical)

The two charts below illustrate several key findings from the survey on how companies use advanced analytics and who within the organization is using this technology.

• Figure 1 indicates that the top uses for advanced analytics include finding patterns in data and building predictive models.

• Figure 2 illustrates that users of advanced analytics in many organizations have expanded from statisticians and other highly technical staff to include business analysts and other business users. Many vendors anticipated this shift to business users and enhanced their offerings by adding new user interfaces, for example, which suggest or dictate what model should be used, given a certain set of data.

Other highlights include:

• Survey participants have seen a huge business benefit from advanced analytics. In fact, over 40% of the respondents who had implemented advanced analytics believed it had increased their company’s top-line revenue. Only 2% of respondents stated that advanced analytics provided little or no value to their company.
• Regardless of company size, the vast majority of respondents expected the number of users of advanced analytics in their companies to increase over the next six to 12 months. In fact, over 50% of respondents currently using the technology expected the number of users to increase over this time period.

The final report will be published in March 2011. Stay tuned!

Five Analytics Predictions for 2011

In 2011 analytics will take center stage as a key trend because companies are at a tipping point with the volume of data they have and their urgent need to do something about it. So, with 2010 now past and 2011 to look forward to, I wanted to take the opportunity to submit my predictions (no pun intended) regarding the analytics and advanced analytics market.

Advanced Analytics gains more steam. Advanced Analytics was hot last year and will remain so in 2011. Growth will come from at least three different sources. First, advanced analytics will increase its footprint in large enterprises. A number of predictive and advanced analytics vendors tried to make their tools easier to use in 2009-2010. In 2011 expect new users in companies already deploying the technology to come on board. Second, more companies will begin to purchase the technology because they see it as a way to increase top line revenue while gaining deeper insights about their customers. Finally, small and mid sized companies will get into the act, looking for lower cost and user -friendly tools.
Social Media Monitoring Shake Out. The social media monitoring and analysis market is one crowded and confused space, with close to 200 vendors competing across no cost, low cost, and enterprise-cost solution classes. Expect 2011 to be a year of folding and consolidation with at least a third of these companies tanking. Before this happens, expect new entrants to the market for low cost social media monitoring platforms and everyone screaming for attention.
Discovery Rules. Text Analytics will become a main stream technology as more companies begin to finally understand the difference between simply searching information and actually discovering insight. Part of this will be due to the impact of social media monitoring services that utilize text analytics to discover, rather than simply search social media to find topics and patterns in unstructured data. However, innovative companies will continue to build text analytics solutions to do more than just analyze social media.
Sentiment Analysis is Supplanted by other Measures. Building on prediction #3, by the end of 2011 sentiment analysis won’t be the be all and end all of social media monitoring. Yes, it is important, but the reality is that most low cost social media monitoring vendors don’t do it well. They may tell you that they get 75-80% accuracy, but it ain’t so. In fact, it is probably more like 30-40%. After many users have gotten burned by not questioning sentiment scores, they will begin to look for other meaningful measures.
Data in the cloud continues to expand as well as BI SaaS. Expect there to still be a lot of discussion around data in the cloud. However, business analytics vendors will continue to launch SaaS BI solutions and companies will continue to buy the solutions, especially small and mid sized companies that find the SaaS model a good alternative to some pricey enterprise solutions. Expect to see at least ten more vendors enter the market.

On-premise becomes a new word. This last prediction is not really related to analytics (hence the 5 rather than 6 predictions), but I couldn’t resist. People will continue to use the term, “on-premise”, rather than “on-premises” when referring to cloud computing even though it is incorrect. This will continue to drive many people crazy since premise means “a proposition supporting or helping to support a conclusion” (dictionary.com) rather than a singular form of premises. Those of us in the know will finally give up correcting everyone else.

What is advanced analytics?

There has been a lot of discussion recently around advanced analytics. I’d like to throw my definition into the rink. I spent many years at Bell Laboratories in the late 1980s and 1990s deploying what I would call advanced analytics. This included utilizing statistical and mathematical models to understand customer behavior, predict retention, or analyze trouble tickets. It also included new approaches for segmenting the customer base and thinking about how to analyze call streams in real time. We also tried to utilize unstructured data from call center logs to help improve the predictive power of our retention models, but the algorithms and the compute power didn’t exist at the time to do this.

Based on my own experiences as well as what I see happening in the market today as an analyst, I view advanced analytics as an umbrella term that includes a class of techniques and practices that go well beyond “slicing and dicing and shaking and baking” data for reports. I would define advanced analytics as:

“Advanced analytics provides algorithms for complex analysis of either structured or unstructured data. It includes sophisticated statistical models, machine learning, neural networks, text analytics, and other advanced data mining techniques. Among its many use cases, it can be deployed to find patterns in data, prediction, optimization, forecasting, and for complex event processing/analysis. Examples include predicting churn, identifying fraud, market basket analysis, or understanding website behavior. Advanced analytics does not include database query and reporting and OLAP cubes. “

Of course, the examples in this definition are marketing-centric and advanced analytics obviously extends into multiple arenas. Hurwitz & Associates is going to do a deep dive into this area in the coming year. We are currently fielding a study about advanced analytics and we’ll be producingadditional reports. For those of you who are interested in completing my survey, here is the link:

Advanced Analytics and the skills needed to make it happen: Takeaways from IBM IOD

Advanced Analytics was a big topic at the IBM IOD conference last week. As part of this, predictive analytics was again an important piece of the story along with other advanced analytics capabilities IBM has developed or is in the process of developing to support optimization. These include Big Insights (for big data), analyzing data streams, content/text analytics, and of course, the latest release of Cognos.

One especially interesting topic that was discussed at the conference was the skills required to make advanced analytics a reality. I have been writing and thinking a lot this subject so I was very happy to hear IBM address it head on during the second day keynote. This keynote included a customer panel and another speaker, Dr. Atul Gawande, and both offered some excellent insights. The panel included Scott Friesen (Best Buy), Scott Futren (Guinnett County Public Schools), Srinivas Koushik (Nationwide), and Greg Christopher (Nestle). Here are some of the interrelated nuggets from the discussions:

• Ability to deliver vs. the ability to absorb. One panelist made the point that a lot of new insights are being delivered to organizations. In the future, it may become difficult for people to absorb all of this information (and this will require new skills too).
• Analysis and interpretation. People will need to know how to analyze and how to interpret the results of an analysis. As Dr. Gawande pointed out, “Having knowledge is not the same as using knowledge effectively.”
• The right information. One of the panelists mentioned that putting analytics tools in the hands of line people might be too much for them, and instead the company is focusing on giving these employees the right information.
• Leaders need to have capabilities too. If executives are accustomed to using spreadsheets and relying on their gut instincts, then they will also need to learn how to make use of analytics.
• Cultural changes. From call center agents using the results of predictive models to workers on the line seeing reports to business analysts using more sophisticated models, change is coming. This change means people will be changing the way that they work. How this change is handled will require special thought by organizations.

IBM executives also made a point of discussing the critical skills required for analytics. These included strategy development, developing user interfaces, enterprise integration, modeling, and dealing with structured and unstructured data. IBM has, of course, made a huge investment in these skills. GBS executives emphasized the 8,500 employees in its Global Business Services Business Analytics and Optimization group. Executives also pointed to the fact that the company has thousands of partners in this space and that 1 in 3 IBMers will attend analytics training. So, IBM is prepared to help companies in their journey into business analytics.

Are companies there yet? I think that it is going to take organizations time to develop some of these skills (and some they should probably outsource). Sure, analytics has been around a long time. And sure, vendors are making their products easier to use and that is going to help end users become more effective. Even if we’re just talking about a lot of business people making use of analytic software (as opposed to operationalizing it in a business process), the reality is that analytics requires a certain mindset. Additionally, unless someone understands the context of the information he or she is dealing with, it doesn’t matter how user friendly the platform is – they can still get it wrong. People using analytics will need to think critically about data, understand their data, and understand context. They will also need to know what questions to ask.

I whole-heartedly believe it is worth the investment of time and energy to make analytics happen.

Please note:

As luck would have it, I am currently fielding a study on advanced analytics! In am interested in understanding what your company’s plans are for advanced analytics. If you’re not planning to use advanced analytics, I’d like to know why. If you’re already using advanced analytics I’d like to understand your experience.

If you participate in this survey I would be happy to send you a report of our findings. Simply provide your email address at the end of the survey! Here’s the link:

Click here to take survey

Who is using advanced analytics?

Advanced analytics is currently a hot topic among businesses, but who is actually using it and why? What are the challenges and benefits to those companies that are using advanced analytics? And, what is keeping some companies from exploring this technology?

Hurwitz & Associates would like your help in answering a short (5 min) survey on advanced analytics. We are interested in understanding what your company’s plans are for advanced analytics. If you’re not planning to use advanced analytics, we’d like to know why. If you’re already using advanced analytics we’d like to understand your experience.

If you participate in this survey we would be happy to send you a report of our findings. Simply provide us your email address at the end of the survey! Thanks!

Here is the link to the survey:
Click here to take survey

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